Go-Go for J.J.
Written by Bill   
Monday, 09 November 2009 09:00

I've had a couple days to digest, and I still don't really know how I feel about this.

Out of context, it's a great trade for the Twins. Hardy is just a better player than Gomez. From the Brewers' perspective, it's kind of hard to see why they would do it. 2009 slump and all, lots of teams would love to pick up a 27 year old, slick-fielding shortstop who's a year removed from two straight 20+-HR seasons. They surely could have gotten more than just Gomez for him, at least if they were willing to wait a few weeks or months for teams to get a little desperate.Maybe Gomez figures it all out and becomes a star, but before the fact, this looks to me like a big loss for the Brewers.

From the Twins' perspective, though? I'm on the fence.
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On one hand, I've wanted them to go out and get Hardy ever since the rumor surfaced last season that he might be on the market, and his down year hasn't done a whole lot to temper my enthusiasm, considering that even the 2009 Hardy is miles better than any middle infielder the Twins used last season.

On the other hand, Gomez is just 24 years old and is one of the three or four best defensive outfielders in baseball. He can't hit, but he doesn't need to hit much to be a useful player. If he develops into an average hitter, he'll be an all-star quality player.

What the trade essentially means for the Twins is that you're trading 600 PA of Casilla or Harris for Hardy, which is great, then (assuming the Twins wised up and put their optimal lineup out there) 600 PA of Gomez for Young, and moving Span from left to center. Those things are not so great. Young is a better hitter than Gomez, of course, but still isn't good, and he's an absolute butcher in the field. And Span is a phenomenal left or right fielder and an average-to-poor center fielder. That's an enormous downgrade at two outfield positions. Considering Cuddyer is a liability in right as well, it leaves the Twins with what might be the worst defensive outfield in baseball. Combine that with a rather flyball-heavy pitching staff, and that's just not good news.

Add it all up, and it's probably still a victory for the Twins -- but it's a slight one, and kind of worrisome. What bugs me is that there's a common idea among Twins fans and media like the one expressed here, to-wit: the Twins managed to fix two problems, one being filling one of the holes on the infield and the other solving the "logjam" in the outfield. How ridiculous is that? Depth in the outfield isn't a "problem," especially when one of those four outfielders isn't currently a Major-League-caliber player. And if Cuddyer or (especially) Span goes down for an extended period with an injury, how would you feel about having that "logjam" back at that point?

I think that in the final analysis, I'm okay with the trade as long as the Twins go out and get a slick-fielding fourth outfielder (this one's a free agent). Six or seven innings of Young-Span-Cuddyer followed by two or three of Span-Chavez-Cuddyer sits a lot better with me than nine innings of the former, and that would really lessen the blow of losing Gomez (provided Gomez doesn't suddenly figure it out and turn into a young Mike Cameron, which he very well might, but that's the kind of risk you have to be willing to take). I'd have preferred them getting a second and third baseman and leaving Punto at short, but Hardy is definitely a huge upgrade in the infield, and of course there's plenty of time left to fill one (or both) of those other two holes. So all in all, I'm pleased, but with reservations. It just seems like they could have gotten it done for something of equivalent value that they'd miss less (Glen Perkins and a prospect?).



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Comments (3)Add Comment
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written by The Common Man, November 09, 2009
I don't disagree with your analysis of the deal; it's a little baffling from the Brewers' side and risky from the Twins. Here are my two cents:

1) They couldn't find a better photo for the Smith article than one of Hardy NOT making a play???

2) What Gardenhire means when he says he doesn't want "outfield clutter" is that he's glad now that he can stop thinking about who to play. Because thinking is hard and Ron Gardenhire would prefer not to think (you know, assess pros and cons, develop an opinion) whenever possible. It's much easier to just react and use the tools he has than to figure out how to use those tools.

3) Given the Brewers kept asking for either Clay Buchholz or Daniel Bard from the Red Sox last season, I have a hard time thinking that Perkins + non-elite prospect was going to get it done for them. Though that still leaves the question as to why Gomez was enough to get Hardy, when MLBTradeRumors and the Boston Globe reported (here:http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/...ckett.html) the Red Sox had offered Michael Bowden (which seems like a better option to me).
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written by Ron R, November 09, 2009
Would you guys stop compaining about Gardenhire? He gets his team to the plaoffs, doesn't he?

To be fair, it is your team. So I'll make you a deal. We'll trade you Hillman for Gardenhire. We'll even throw in Jacobs, Guillen and Pena for free.

Deal?
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written by lar @ wezen-ball, November 09, 2009
I still don't know what to make of this deal. Yes, JJ Hardy needed to be traded (for a number of reasons). And, yes, everyone knew this, so Melvin's hand was a little weak. And, yes, by trading for Gomez the Brewers saved $14 million, which will certainly help sign that pitcher or two that they need.

But I still feel underwhelmed by the trade. I love Gomez's defense, and I'm okay with having a weaker bat to get it. And I know that he is still young enough to put it together, but it seems like they're betting an awful lot on that.

I don't think it's a terrible trade, though. $14 million is a ton of money to free up for a club like the Brewers, and they were able to get a great defensive CF for it which, with Braun and Hart in the corners and with Miller Park's large centerfield (and certain free-agent pitcher busts' tendencies to give up fly balls), that's very important. If they use the money wisely in picking up some pitching, the move is easily forgiven.

If I were a Twins fan, though, I'd be a little wary of JJ. Yes, he's technically only 1 year removed from consecutive 20 HR seasons, but he's really been on an offensive slide for 1.5 years (he was good in the first half of 2008, but not so good the second half). That could signal something unpleasant and, considering Melvin was willing to give up on him, it might be something to watch out for. That said, his glove is always good enough to keep him starting on a major league ballclub, so that's something.

In summary: I have no idea what's going on here...

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