About once a week this offseason, I'm going to do a post checking up on things I wrote during (especially early in) the 2009 season. Did the player keep doing what he was doing? If I made a prediction, how did that pan out? And so forth. I don't have much to say about the NLCS or anything else this morning, so here's a little preview of that.

Back on June 15, I wrote about the incredible season Justin Upton was having at age 21. At the time, he was "hitting .306/.389/.569 (143 OPS+) and on pace for 32 HR, 35 2B, 11 3B and 24 SB."

He ended up hitting .300/.366/.532 (128 OPS+), with 26 HR, 30 2B, 7 3B, and 20 SB. He dropped off in every category, but a big part of that was missing three weeks in August with an injury; he hit .297/.350/.506 from June 15 forward, which is obviously a dropoff, but certainly nothing to worry about. At any rate, it was still a very fine season for a guy whose peers are almost all still playing AA ball or lower, and especially considering that, according to UZR, he's improved from a poor right fielder (-10 UZR/150 games in 2008) to a pretty good one (+6 in '09).
(click here to read more)

I also noted that among a small group of 19 or 20 year olds who had put up an OPS+ between 100 and 110 in that season, as Upton did in 2008, (a) most of them went on to become excellent players, and (b) the ones who became really excellent players (Hank Aaron, Ken Griffey Jr.) tended to get much better very quickly. Aaron jumped from 104 at 20 to 143 at 21; Griffey went from 108 at 19 to 135 at 20. So Upton jumping from 107 at age 20 to 148 the following year would've been a very, very good sign.

Well, that didn't happen, but it's still a very good sign. 128 is the 40th-highest OPS+ in history by a 21 year old, tied with Joe DiMaggio and just ahead of Harry Heilmann (and Richie Hebner and Boog Powell). He's in good company, but whether he's an all-time great player or merely a very good one is still up in the air. Another similarly-sized step forward in 2010 would go a long way in the right direction.

Big Question: you get to pick any one player and keep him on your team for the next ten years. Who do you take before Upton?

I don't think you can take a pitcher, given the inherent uncertainties, though Felix Hernandez will turn 24 a few days into the 2010 season and wouldn't be a bad pick. I'm sure Ryan Braun will be fine ten years from now, but Upton (it appears) can use his bat and his glove. Hanley Ramirez will be 35 ten years from now, and almost certainly no longer a shortstop. Evan Longoria is a defensive whiz and already a great all-around player, but he's two years older than Upton and has only matched Upton's 128 OPS+ (albeit in a much tougher league and division). Miguel Cabrera is a possibility, but will be 36 by the end and probably a DH.

You can make decent arguments for any of these guys. But I think I might take Upton.

Comments (0)

Name

Email

Website

Title

Comment

smaller | bigger

Subscribe via email (registered users only)

Add Comment