Holy Crap, a Pennant Race!
Written by Bill   
Tuesday, 29 September 2009 09:00

Well, I mean, I don't know if the wildcard counts as a "pennant." I don't know what a "pennant" is anymore, really. But a race!

First of all, how silly does Peter Gammons' idea look now? Just last week, he was bemoaning the fact that there were "essentially no races" and arguing that we should add a second wildcard team to each league. That was crazy at the time, and just bizarrely reactionary when you consider how great at least the last three seasons' final months have been. But anyway, now here we are less than a week later, and there are two playoff spots that are pretty much up for grabs.

So the Braves. After losing their fifth in a row on September 6th, the Braves stood at 70-67, kind of sort of but not really afterthoughts in the wildcard race. They were seven games behind the Rockies, five behind the Giants and two behind the Marlins. Since then they've gone 16-3, winning their seventh in a row on Monday night to move just two behind the Rockies.

The Braves and Rockies both have six games remaining. All of the Braves' games are at home, two against the Marlins and four against the Nationals (53-103), while the Rox have three at home against the Brewers and three on the road against the Dodgers (93-64).

So that doesn't look good for the Rockies. The Dodgers might not have anything left to play for for those last three games (though they could be getting some pressure for home field advantage from the Cards and/or Phils), but a half-strength Dodgers team in LA is still better than a full-strength Nats team on the road (and of course, the Nationals don't exactly have a lot to gain or lose, either).

But -- as hard as it is for me to say this right now, as a Twins fan -- it's very hard to make up a two-game deficit in six games. Assume the Braves split the last two with the Marlins, a pretty good team, and win three of four from the Nats. They'd still need the Rockies to lose both of their remaining series, or win 2 out of 3 in one and get swept in the other, just to force a one-game playoff (which, on the bright side, would be played in Atlanta -- I've probably said this before, but it's too bad it took the Twins getting screwed over in "game 163" last year to make them ditch the stupid coin flip). Lose two to the Marlins, and the Braves pretty much have to sweep the Nats (and it's not easy for anybody to sweep anybody, especially in four games) or hope the Rockies just completely fall on their faces.

The Braves are probably a slightly better team than the Rockies, and certainly have a much easier schedule remaining. But when you're talking about a sample of six games, that stuff doesn't really mean anything at all. Certainly a lot less than that two-game lead the Rockies still have.

Anyway, I'm just glad we have another race.



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