Twins and Thome just don't mix
Written by Bill   
Friday, 22 January 2010 20:18

As I've mentioned before, Jim Thome is one of my favorite players. Maybe my very favorite player, once hometown bias is taken out (thus disqualifying Mauer and Denard Span). I've been a fan for years, and somehow even managed to remain a fan while he spent four seasons with my team's mortal enemy. At any time during that period, I'd have loved to have Thome on my team.

So why do I hate this so much?

Earlier today, it was reported that Thome was very close to signing with the Twins, so close that it might even happen today. That's died down, but the Twins have confirmed that they have a "real interest" in signing Thome.

And I don't get it.

Jason Kubel vs. RHP, 2009: .323/.397/.619, 26HR
Jim Thome vs. RHP, 2009: .262/.383/.498, 18HR

Jason Kubel vs. LHP, 2009: .243/.299/.345, 2HR
Jim Thome vs. RHP, 2009: .209/.314/.429, 5HR

So, a DH who is the exact opposite of Thome would be a good fit. But alas. I guess you could argue that Kubel isn't really that good, and you'd probably be right to some extent, but then I could argue that Thome will turn 40 years old during the season, and I know I'd be right.

But anyway, they're obviously not going to swap out their third best hitter of 2009. I can only assume that the plan would be to get Kubel more time in left field, where they've currently got this:
Delmon Young vs. RHP, 2009: .271/.303/.383, 5HR
Delmon Young vs. LHP, 2009: .310/.321/.512, 7HR

Oh, and then you've got this:
Jason Kubel, UZR/150 as LF, career: -18.1
Delmon Young, UZR/150 as LF, career: -18.9

So what you've got, if you sign Thome, is three guys who, defensively, can really only DH, two of which can embarrass themselves in left field if you really have no better options. Delmon would actually make a pretty decent platoon partner for either Kubel or Thome, assuming his 2009 improvement against LHP was mostly real (and he was pretty solid against them in 2008 too). But that's a DH platoon, not a LF platoon. Playing left field every day for a season is worth about 8-10 runs to your team more than playing DH for a season is, per Tango's position adjustments. So if you're costing your team 18-19 runs in the field by playing LF, that's a net of -10, and you've really just got to get out of the field.

Ergo, bringing a full-time DH (and Thome hasn't played an inning in the field since 2007, despite spending a month in the National League) to get a Kubel/Young platoon that has to play in the field seems like an enormous waste in every possible way. Why not look for a guy who can actually play the outfield, and then move that platoon to DH?

Left fielders still out there include Randy Winn, Reed Johnson, and Marcus Thames. None of these guys give you the satisfaction of signing a future Hall of Famer and 25 home runs, but all of them, by getting Young and Kubel out of the field, are likely to provide more value than Thome would at this point.

Even better: Denard Span measures out as a phenomenal corner outfielder and a poor centerfielder, part of why I've called this team the worst defensive outfield in baseball. Assuming you're convinced he's healthy, why not send a million or so in the direction of Endy Chavez to play a phenomenal center field and provide weak offense that's frankly probably not that much worse than Delmon vs. RHP (and much better than Kubel vs. LHP)? Then you can slide Span over to left, and suddenly you've got a pretty damned good outfield defense.

I love Jim Thome. Part of me will be very, very happy if my team signs him. But the rest of me just won't get it.



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