I had a blast last night, when The Common Man, Larry from Wezen-Ball and I recorded our second bi-weekly podcast. We talked a lot about Dan Haren, the trade deadline and the various pennant races. You can check it out here. We'll do it again on August 11.

Almost two months ago, the Twins called up third baseman and marginal prospect Danny Valencia, and I was unenthused. I noted that Valencia's minor league numbers showed moderate power and moderate-to-poor plate discipline, and that he didn't have a sterling defensive reputation; add it all up, and he just didn't look like a big-league regular.

Or, to put it another way, all the best methods available -- his MLEs, CHONE, and ZiPS -- point to the same one sad conclusion: Valencia, as a Major League player, looks a lot like Nick Punto, except without any of those things that make Punto a useful player. Put yet another way: blech.

So. That was June 1. By the end of June, Valencia had played in 16 games and amassed 50 plate appearances, and my predictions were looking OK. Valencia was batting .304, but with just four walks and one extra-base hit (a double), putting his OPS at just .686, right around where his MLEs put him. From observation, I can tell you that most of his hits were bloop singles or little ground balls that bled through a hole somewhere -- exactly the way you might expect Nick Punto to be hitting .304 after a month.

Since then, of course, Valencia has been tearing the league to pieces, capped off by the four-game three-hits streak that The Common Man tackled yesterday. Even after his 0-for-3 to end the streak yesterday, Valencia is hitting .468/.519/.660 in July. He's had about the same number of plate appearances he had in June, and has just one more walk, but has six more extra base hits, including a long grand slam home run off of Zack Greinke. For the year, he's now hitting .387/.441/.495, good for a .417 wOBA and 164 wRC+. UZR also thinks he's played excellent defense thus far (and I can tell you he looks sharp out there on TV). He's already put up 1.3 WAR, which works out to 8.4 wins above replacement over 660 plate appearances, a clearly MVP-type performance. So I thought it would be a good time to reevaluate.

The Minnesota Twins have bolted out of the gate in the second half of the season, winning nine of their first 13 games, including the last two against the Kansas City Royals by a combined score of 30-3.  In the meantime, they have cut the Chicago White Sox’s lead in the AL Central down to a single game and put some distance between them and the injury-plagued Detroit Tigers.

And in the last four games, rookie Danny Valencia has virtually guaranteed himself the starting 3B job for the rest of the year.  Sure, everyone’s hitting, but no one is hitting quite as much as Valencia is.  In each of the last four games, Valencia has had three hits, including four in each of his last two.  Using Baseball Reference’s Play Index, we can find that Valencia’s hot streak isn’t that uncommon.  In all, 86 players since 1920 have had at least three hits in four straight games including such luminaries as Tyler Houston, Thomas Howard, Dave Chalk, Irv Noren, Cal Abrams, Mel Almada, Creepy Crespi, and Lee Scarsella.  Three players, Kirby Puckett, Johnny Damon, and Gee Walker did it twice.

That said, while the list of players does include a few flukes, it’s far more populated with really good players.  Seventy of the 86 players on that list had more than 10 wins above replacement for their career according to Baseball Projections WAR data.  Fifty-four of the 86 had a career WAR above 20.0.  The average career WAR on the list is 34.9, though that number is misleading because the list is dominated by extremely valuable players like Ty Cobb, Stan Musial, Rogers Hornsby, and Lou Gehrig.  Indeed, the scatter chart begins to look exponential if you plot their career WARs.

A more representative measure, then, is probably to look at the median WAR of these players, which is Cecil Travis’s 26.6.  Actually, Travis, a line drive hitting SS and 3B for the Senators, is a good match for Valencia, who does not project to hit for power at the major league level, and would a good mark to shoot for.  Travis was always solid, and occassionally excellent for the Senators in the 1930s and early '40s, before he went to World War II.  There, Travis served on the front line in the Battle of the Bulge, where he got frostbite in two of his tows, and had to have them amputated.  When he returned after almost four full seasons, Travis was 34 and the time away and his foot injury left him unable to contribute.  After a season and a half below replacement level, he retired.  In all, Valencia’s 1.4 WAR through less than 100 plate appearances already tops five of the players on the list (Mel Almada, Fresco Thompson, Gil Coan, Scarsella, and Houston).

Valencia’s 14 hits over four games is much more impressive.  Since 1920, he is tied (with 9 others) for ninth all time for the most hits over four consecutive games.  While the list contains a lot of great to good players, headlined by Musial and Wade Boggs, the all time leader is Milt Stock, who actually had four consecutive four hit games in 1925.  As remarkable as it was, Stock’s feat was not noticed by the media, and may have been overlooked entirely in his day.  Jimmy Johnston also had two four game spans (6/25-6/29 and 6/26-6/30) in 1923 in which he had 15 hits each.  Johnston holds the record for most consecutive games with more three hits or more, with six straight games in which he collected 23 total hits for Brooklyn.  The papers couldn’t help but notice Johnston, who The Boston Globe noticed had hit .828 for the week.  To put that in some perspective, Valencia’s streak has lasted two fewer games and he’s hitting only .737.  That’s a hell of a week.

So what’s the outlook for Danny Valencia?  It’s certainly possible that the four game streak is a fluke.  After all, Milt Stock and Jimmy Johnston aren’t exactly world beaters.  But for the most part, the kind of stretches enjoyed by Valencia are relatively common for good major league hitters, because to get that hot you generally need to have the underlying skill to support it (with some luck).  The Marv Owens of the world need a lot more luck to be able to pull this off.  So we should be fairly bullish on Danny Valencia.  He is, of course, not going to turn into Wade Boggs or George Brett suddenly (both of whom also had a similar stretch), but the kid looks like he’ll turn into a pretty good major league 3B.  The Twins should happily take a right handed Cecil Travis for the next few years.

If you’re following the trade deadline for the past couple years, you’ve noticed how valuable prospects have become.  Even non-elite prospects are guarded with the ferocity of Cerberus by GMs who realize that having 6 years cost-controlled mediocrity is better than short-term, higher-cost, low-efficiency options.  Sure, these veterans tend to be better than the younger options, but in a world where you’re compelled to buy victories, it’s better to save money at the margins to make a big splash on a difference-making player.

Not only has this led to the extreme valuation of prospects that not every GM has caught up on (hello Ed Wade!), but it has also slowed down the deadline considerably as teams are struggling to find acceptable deals for their high-priced veterans.  As a result, these GMs are holding their vets for a bit longer, hoping to snooker some desperate GM at the last minute.  Of course, any decision like this has unintended consequences, as Dayton Moore, Doug Melvin, and Billy Beane are finding out. The risk of holding on to players like David DeJesus, Corey Hart, and Ben Sheets too long is that sometimes players get hurt.

Indeed, DeJesus and Sheets look like they’re out for the year, and Hart has not played since jamming his wrist on Friday.  As a result, the Royals and A’s, and perhaps the Brewers as well, will not be able to acquire new talent for organizations in desperate need of it.  The compulsion for GMs to find the best deal, the perfect deal, has gotten so great that GMs are making no deal until they are forced, which often is taking the actual choice out of their hands.

In this new economy of prospects, GMs seem to have two options.

Zach Sanders kicked off my (first) Baby Week with a guest post about Angel Pagan, and is back to close it out with another great one on the suddenly underrated Dan Haren.

With the trade deadline approaching, many names are being thrown about as teams look to improve their team now, or in the future. One of the names rumored to be dealt at this year’s trading deadline is Dan Haren, one of the best starters in all of baseball.

Haren has two years and $25.5 million left on his contract, as well as a $15.5 million club option in 2013. Because he’s not just a rental, Haren is an even more valuable commodity, and the Diamondbacks are going to make teams pay for it. Rumor has it that the club is asking for two starters and bullpen help in return for their ace.

You may be asking yourself, “Why would teams give up that much for a guy who is 7-8 with an ERA over 4.00?” Don’t let his ERA and Win/Loss record fool you, Dan Haren is a bona fide ace. Haren has thrown at least 215 innings every year since 2005, and came within two outs of reaching the 230 IP mark last year. In that time span (2005-present), Haren has been worth over 28 Wins for the Diamondbacks, as well as being the 6th most valuable pitcher in baseball over the past three seasons. Oh, and don’t forget that he has a K/BB rate of 4.93 and a 3.42 xFIP this year. Yeah, that too.

Some teams inquiring on Haren may be worried about his first and second half splits from last year. But, they should fear not, because Haren didn’t really have much of a split last year, even though that might be how you remember it. I present to you, the reader, Haren’s monthly splits from the 2009 season:

April: 2.72 xFIP (1.54 ERA)
May: 3.12 xFIP (3.50 ERA)
June: 2.81 xFIP (1.64 ERA)
July: 3.22 xFIP (2.18 ERA)
Aug: 3.64 xFIP (4.95 ERA)
Sept: 2.96 xFIP (4.79 ERA)

Haren never had a month with a walk rate above 2.00 per nine innings, nor did he have a month where he struck out less than 7.5 batters every nine innings. While he gave up a ton of homers in August (8 in 40 IP), it shouldn’t come as much of a surprise due to the weather in Arizona.

Paying for two (possibly three) and a half years of Haren is like moving out of an apartment and buying a new house. You have to spend much more money (prospects) right now , but you will be very happy with the security of knowing you have made a good investment.

Zach Sanders writes for FanGraphs. You can follow him on Twitter or reach him via This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it .

Today's excellent guest writer is Andrew Kneeland. Andrew writes about my favorite team over at Twins Target, and I'd also highly recommend that you follow him on Twitter.

With a brand new ballpark and an infusion of fresh talent, Minnesota was given immense expectations at the beginning of the year. Expected to breeze through the American League Central, the Twins were a popular candidate for a deep postseason run.

Ninety-three games into the 2010 season, though, the Twins are failing to live up to the hype.
An ailing rotation, a spotty bullpen, and honest-to-goodness rotten luck have kept Minnesota from achieving their potential. While finger-pointers can blame just about every member of the team, Delmon Young refuses to be a scapegoat. Quietly churning out the best season of his career from deep within the Twins' lineup, Young will not be ignored for much longer.

In terms of wOBA, Young has been the second-best hitter in Minnesota's lineup among those with at least 200 plate appearances. Better than Michael Cuddyer. Better than Jason Kubel. Yes, even better than Joe Mauer.

And yet, Young is still stuck in the bottom third of manager Ron Gardenhire's batting order.
Young's .313/.348/.510 triple-slash line this season is far better than the league-average No. 7 hitter: .256/.323/.412. That's 123 OPS points, or the difference between Angel Pagan and Rajai Davis. Young has even managed to lead the team in RBI despite his low position in the lineup.

Throughout his career, Young has managed to maintain an impressive batting average, empty and devoid of power though it was. This year, Young has boasted plenty of power. On pace to hit 18 home runs this year, Young's .510 slugging percentage is the 18th-highest in the league. Young is also on pace to knock 45 doubles this season, nearly three times more than he hit last season.

But what has Young done different this year to transform him from a draft bust to a premier young talent? He's walking more, striking out less, and even his fielding skills have taken a turn for the better. More importantly, though, Young has gotten smarter, taking better swings which result in a much higher contact percentage.

His batted ball ratios aren't far off what they were last year, but Young's eight point increase in contact percentage has given him a significant power boost, despite the fact that he's still swinging at everything in sight.

The 24-year old slugger has been especially hot in the month of July, hitting .404/.433/.684 in 15 games. If he keeps this up, Young will soon move up to fifth in the batting order.
And a much deserved promotion it will be.

Guest post number two in baby week (or possibly baby week-and-a-half or two weeks) comes from Joe Tetreault. Joe writes about the intersection of Business and Sports as Managing Editor of the Business of Sports Networks with a focus on The Biz of Baseball as well as maintaining his own blog devoted primarily to baseball at TetreaultVision.

July is the summer trading season in Major League Baseball. The winter hot stove is well-removed. The heat is amply provided by the coming dog days of August as well as the hotly contested pennant races in both leagues. And what a fine collection of races will entertain us for the duration of this season

This pre-deadline environment prompts baseball scholars to contemplate player values in a slightly different light. Offseason evaluations tend to filter into different categories. Who are the top prospects or the top arbitration eligibles or the top free agents or even the top just graduated prospects hold our collective attention. Not because they are particularly useful to the teams, but instead because they prompt discussion, perpetuate offseason interest in baseball and help us prepare for the spring's fantasy baseball drafts.

At midseason the evaluation of player value is more team-centric. With clubs eager to solidify leads or arm up for one gallant push through August and September, they fix their attention on cutting the best deal possible which demands they balance the scales between commodities with excess value in exchange for assets to fill glaring holes.

The ever enjoyable Fangraphs attempts to objectively examine player trade values this time of year in their annual top fifty countdown. Quoting Dave Cameron's introduction to the series:

Again, I want to emphasize that this is a post about trade value, not a ranking of player performance. How well they do on the field is obviously a significant factor, but teams don’t simply make deals based on how good a guy is right now. There are numerous factors, of which contract status is perhaps the most important.

1. Evan Longoria 3B Tampa Bay
2. Jason Heyward RF Atlanta
3. Stephen Strasburg SP Washington
4. Hanley Ramirez SS Florida
5. Dustin Pedroia 2B Boston

Bifurcating the list to consider instead the value of known commodities against those who still possess upside is a useful start to shedding more light on how to best evaluate players in this season of wheeling and dealing. And that is precisely where we will begin our evaluation of high value players who could and should be on the move.

The first consideration in player movement is contract. A favorable contract made Cliff Lee very valuable to all the teams who called the Mariners. But in sweetening their offer, Texas was able to get Seattle to underwrite the majority of the money owed Lee for the balance of the season. This illustrates the first rule in deal making. In case a refresher is called for, JC Bradbury provides a succinct explanation:

The moral of the story is that when you’re paying a guy close to what he’s worth, you’re not going to get back much in a trade, even if he’s quite good.

This explains why you won't find Roy Oswalt or Lance Berkman on my lists. It is also helps to explain why relievers are under-represented, though they will certainly be dealt. A reliever's performace possesses such slight value as to make internal promotion (welcome back to the majors Michael Bowden) a more cost effective means of shoring up a team's bullpen.

For established players our criteria then are as follows:

Early Arbitration or Pre-Arbitration players or signed to favorable contracts lasting at least two additional seasons on non-contending clubs. Budget conscious contenders with internal replacements - call this the Tampa Bay proviso - are also worth consideration. For unproven assets, the consideration primarily focuses on the parent club. If they are contending and the minor leaguer is blocked either above and likely to be supplanted by a superior prospect at a lower level then they are a surplus commodity worth dangling in the hopes of obtaining a piece for the stretch run. The lists will better explain what regular definitions only adequately accomplish.

Established Players On the Go

#5 Tie B.J. Upton and Hunter Pence

Upton has been whispered in rumors, whilst about Pence little has been said. Few things better illustrate the remarkable difference between the franchises. Upton may never realize his hitting talent, but he is fast and has proven a stellar defender in centerfield. He's also just 25. Pence has demonstrated the offensive acumen that his development promised, but as a corner outfielder, his ability is overshadowed by some of the better boppers available. Pence will likely stay put, as Houston fails to recognize the above rule. Oswalt and Berkman can provide little in return because their performance value is matched or exceeded by the money owed them. Upton and Pence who are in their arbitration years can be non-tendered if their performance flags mitigating risk. They are also under team control, so if they hit better they can be retained. Upton is replaced by Desmond Jennings in Tampa Bay. Pence does not have an obvious young talent to replace him, though Round Rock's Andrew Locke is having a good age 27 season and could take over until an acquired prospect is ready.

#4 Corey Hart

#3 Jayson Werth

#2 Rickie Weeks

#1 Dan Haren

Prospects Worth Dangling

#5 Peter Bourjos Angels AAA CF

Bourjos is a good, not great centerfielder whose bat should play well at the position at the big league level and whose speed helps make him a plus defender and a fairly good stolen base threat. He's got Torii Hunter blocking him with the Angels and Mike Trout already in Advanced A after his showing at the Futures Game that drew rave reviews. Bourjos has already been surpassed by the younger player and therefore is easily expendable for the Angels.

#4 Yonder Alonso Reds AAA 1B/LF

Alonso is a very good hitter who is blocked by a great hitter at first base. Cincinnati has tried converting him to left field. But they've done the same with Todd Frazier. One of them will get to play left and the other gets dealt. Until Alonso's doubles power ages, he's the likely candidate to fetch something shiny for a postseason run in Cincinnati.

#3 Wilson Ramos Twins AAA C

It's tough when you're a level below the defending AL MVP and you both play the same position. Moving Joe Mauer from catcher before it is necessary reduces his value to the Twins, which means shopping Ramos is the logical outcome. Young catchers with hitting talent are rare enough to make Ramos an extremely attractive commodity. The Twins don't have anyone in the high minors to supplant him immediately, but with Mauer, even 27 year old Jose Morales will prove an adequate backup,

#2 Mike Minor Braves AAA SP

Minor has rapidly climbed to AAA after just four starts in Single A Rome of the Sally League last year. With less than 125 innings of professional experience, Minor is somewhat unknown, but his numbers are outstanding. With prospects like Julio Teheran and Arodys Vizcaino in the system, and Tommy Hanson, Jair Jurrjens, and Kris Medlen as young starters, the Braves have a surplus of young pitchers, making Minor (a lefty) a valuable commodity.

#1 Simon Castro Padres AA SP

The Padres have excelled in 2010 thanks in part to a pitching staff that has held opponents in check. Castro is probably a year away from contributing in San Diego, which may be too late to contribute to a potential division winner. Castro's upside makes him the least likely of the list to actually get moved, especially with Wynn Pelzer struggling in AA, where Castro has excelled. With Aaron Poreda now relieving and Latos on an innings limit, the club's need to retain young starting pitching is acute. But flags fly forever and a high end bat may require that type of sacrifice. I wouldn't bet on it, but I wouldn't bet against it either.

While I'm away getting to know my second child (who should be being delivered at around the time this piece goes live), I'm lucky enough to be able to have much of the dead space filled by extremely talented guest writers. Today (and again later this week) we welcome back the excellent Zach Sanders. Enjoy!

While the return on Carlos Beltran is great news for Mets fans, it’s for different reasons then you’d think. Sure, the Mets get a well above-average switch hitter to stash in the middle of their lineup, and yes, they get a solid outfield defender to help out their pitchers. But, more importantly, they get the chance to bench Jeff Francoeur.

Remember when Francoeur was good? Those were the days. From 2005-2007, Frenchy was worth 8 wins and was one of the best up-and-coming sluggers in all of baseball. Soon after, the power left his bat, he stopped putting up good defensive numbers, and became one of the worst players in the game. Even after all of this, the Mets have been starting Frenchy in right field all season, and he has barely been a replacement level player.

With the return of Beltran, Angel Pagan will be allowed to shift over to right field and send Francoeur to the bench. Pagan has performed very well this year, posting a line of .311/.367/.467 while stealing 19 bases in 24 chances. His offensive production has been good enough for a .369 wOBA and 131 wRC+, both career highs for the switch-hitter. Overall, he’s been the Mets' second best player this year (behind one David Wright), contributing 3.2 Wins to his team.

In the field, Pagan is a good defensive center fielder, so that would make him a very good right fielder. However, since Beltran is coming back from knee problems and isn’t getting any younger, I would recommend keeping Pagan in center and moving Beltran to right. While the Mets almost certainly won’t do this, it is the best option if they want to optimize their defense and try to keep Beltran as healthy as possible.

Moving from a replacement level player to Carlos Beltran is a huge upgrade for the Mets. While his knees will slow him down for the time being, Beltran’s return could spark a second half surge in Queens and result in the Mets making the playoffs.

Zach Sanders writes for FanGraphs. You can follow him on Twitter or reach him via This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it .

The other day over at Wezen-Ball, I attempted to look at the best non-All-Stars of all time. Which I sort of did, but not the way I intended to, thanks to a big, wrong assumption. (On the bright side, there's now an explanatory phrase over at BBREF for which I'd like to think I'm partly responsible.)

Anyway, today I'm going to do the natural converse: the very worst players ever to make an All-Star team. Because I can't do it the way I wanted to do the other one -- filter according to individual seasons in which the player actually made the All-Star team -- this one is going to be quite a bit more subjective. I think it would have to be pretty subjective anyway; I don't want to include, say, the aging superstar who keeps getting elected when he can't play anymore (Pete Rose, for instance, was almost a win below replacement in 1982 but made the team). I want players who were truly bad MLB players, having truly bad seasons -- and bad first halves, too, wherever possible. The real head-scratchers. If you're interested in something purely quantitative, here's the list of lowest-career-WAR players to be named All-Stars.

First, a few honorable mentions whose career WAR or other factors put them out of consideration for the list below: Greg Olson (put up a decent hitting line in 57 first-half games as a 29 year-old rookie catcher in 1990; out of baseball three years later); Mariano Duncan (mediocre utility infielder hitting .265 with a .310 OBP at the '94 break, but actually started the game at 2B--apparently the fans had fond memories of his .345-BA World Series the year before); Tony Womack (led the NL in steals in '97, but had a .318 OBP at the break as a leadoff hitter and put up -26 fielding runs at 2B  and -1.2 WAR for the season); and Dante Bichette (actually a four-time All-Star because of his Coors-inflated numbers, the guy had 2.0 career WAR and only once -- in a non-All-Star season -- put up a season WAR greater than 1.0).

So here are my picks for the worst of all-time: ten guys who, no kidding, make Charlie Manuel's Omar Infante selection -- and, for that matter, the guy pictured to the right -- look downright inspired. The stats below are for the full season in question:

10.  Ron Coomer, Twins 1B/3B, 1999 (.263/.307/.424, 82 OPS+, 0.8 WAR)
Coomer was the only Twin chosen in '99, and the only first baseman to back up Thome (Joe Torre and/or the players put three backup DHes on the team that year, which makes perfect sense). His first half was better than his overall line -- .282/.312/.458 -- but it was a year in which the average AL 1B hit .279/.362/.481. Coomer's WAR ended up on the plus side that year (0.8, equal to his career WAR) only because of a freakish +7 runs at third base...a position he wasn't selected to the All-Star team to play. Coomer struck out in his only plate appearance, but will forever be introduced on Fox Sports North as "Twins All-Star Ron Coomer."
The Twins were terrible in 1999, but Coomer was, at best, the sixth-best player on the team; Brad Radke (6-7, 3.66 at the break, 5.8 WAR on the year) would've been in infinitely better choice.

9.  Ken Reitz, Cards 3B, 1980 (.270/.300/.379, 86 OPS+, -0.7 WAR)
Believe it or not, Reitz was actually picked to start the game, rather than fellow All-Stars Ray Knight and league-MVP-to-be Mike Schmidt; I can't find confirmation of it anywhere, but Schmidt didn't play at all, so I'm sure he must've been elected to start and begged off with an injury. Reitz had a -4.2 career WAR and is one of those guys who kept somehow convincing people he was a good player. He won a Gold Glove in 1975, with -16 fielding runs. You know, that sort of thing.
Reitz was better in the first half as well -- .282/.311/.381 -- but that was well below average for an NL 3B. Reitz was one of three Cardinal All-Stars, but Dodger 3B Ron "The Penguin" Cey (.260/.344/.432, six-time reigning All-Star) somehow missed the cut. Reitz went 0-for-2.

8.  Tyler Green, Phillies SP, 1995 (8-9, 5.31 ERA, 141 IP, -0.2 WAR)
This one is both understandable and terrible. Green was a 25 year old former first-rounder who had blown his prospect status with a 7-16, 5.56 season in AAA in 1994. He broke camp with the Phillies in '95, surprised everybody by putting up a 9-4, 2.81 in 14 starts and 96 first-half innings, and got the call to the game. Acquitted himself well enough there, giving up two hits but striking out one in a shutout inning. His peripherals were OK; didn't support a 2.81 ERA, but probably a 3.81, which isn't bad at all for '95.
Immediately after the break, Green came unhinged. 6 runs in 4 innings in his first start, 5 in 6 in his second. He had one decent start in the entire second half, putting up a 10.68 ERA in 12 games (11 starts) and just 45 innings. He sat out all of 1996 with an injury, and had just two more partial, ineffective seasons, ending with -1.1 WAR. Green was simply cursed and really doesn't belong on this list (put Ken Harvey here in your mind if you'd like). I just think he's an interesting story.

7.  Joe DeMaestri, Athletics SS, 1957 (.245/.280/.360, 73 OPS+, 0.3 WAR)
The 1957 Kansas City A's lost 94 games, and DeMaestri was their only All-Star...but as bad as they were, there were 13 players on the team with a WAR equal to or greater than his 0.3, including 40 year old two-time former All-Star Virgil Trucks (2.3 WAR).
DeMaestri put up -4.9 WAR for his career -- worst all-time by an All-Star -- and 1957 was actually the only year in which he was better than a replacement-level player. DeMaestri appears this low on the list only because he was doing quite a bit better in the first half -- .288/.329/.376 -- but still an awfully perplexing choice. Could you really justify taking him over, say, three-time All-Star SS Chico Carrasquel? Anyway, DeMaestri didn't see action in the game.

6.  Jeff Newman, Athletics C, 1979 (.231/.267/.399, 82 OPS+, 0.8 WAR)
Newman makes the list not so much because of his year as a whole, but because of his career (-0.2 WAR) and because he somehow made the team with a .228 BA and a .252 OBP in the first half. He did have a .410 SLG and 16 homers (then hit just six homers in the second half), but, I mean, a .252 OBP!!! For a third catcher, young Butch Wynegar (.285/.385/.378) should really have made his third All-Star team in his first four seasons. Darrell Porter and Brian Downing, easily the two best catchers in the AL that year, got all the actual playing time.

5.  Lance Carter, Rays RP, 2003 (7-5, 4.33 ERA, 79 IP, 26 Sv, 0.9 WAR)
By WAR, this doesn't look like one of the worst picks ever, but I'm tempted to put him even closer to #1.  BBREF's WAR gives all kinds of extra credit to closers for pitching in high-leverage situations and all that (as I understand it). By FanGraphs WAR, Carter was a run better than replacement (0.1 WAR, and -0.2 career), with his 4.69 FIP and 4.86 xFIP. At the '03 break, he had a 4.05 ERA in 47 innings, and 15 saves...with six blown saves (71%). I'd guess without checking that there were 30 or so relief pitchers in the AL at the 2003 All-Star break who were better and had been more valuable pitchers than Carter. He was the hapless Rays' only representative, but literally, most of the team would have been a better choice for AL manager Mike Scioscia, including star rookie Rocco Baldelli (hitting .304/.329/.446 at the break).

4.  Jim Coates, Yankees SP, 1960 (13-2, 4.28 ERA, 149 IP, 83 ERA+, -1.0 WAR)
Coates had a couple decent partial seasons, but had a career -1.8 WAR, and this was his worst season. He got the call because he got to pitch for the 97-win Yankees, and thus had a 9-1 record at the break...and a 4.26 ERA. They even gave him two innings in the game, and he gave up two hits and no runs. He was one of seven Yankee All-Stars that year, including both of the team's catchers, Berra and Howard (who was having a terrible year, but-unlike Coates-was usually a pretty good player, and was more of a legacy pick).

3.  Steve Swisher, Cubs C, 1976 (.236/.275/.326, 65 OPS+, -0.1 WAR)
Nick Swisher may not have deserved to win this year's Final Vote over Kevin Youkilis, but Swish's daddy can do him one better as one of the worst and least understandable All-Star selections of all time. He did better in the first half, as he'd almost have to (.268/.304/.346, 88 OPS+), but still poorly, and having already logged two seasons as a backup (613 PA) with a .213 BA and 66 OPS+, not to mention a .213 career minor league batting average, there was certainly nothing to suggest that he'd suddenly become an All-Star. Thankfully, Johnny Bench and Bob Boone got all the playing time in the game. Swisher played just 37 more games that year (hitting .167 with a .211 OBP), and never more than 74 in his remaining six years in the MLB. Still found time to put up -2.6 career WAR. There weren't a ton of great catchers in the 1976 NL, but it's a bit stunning that Swisher made it over Ted Simmons (.281/.356/.377 at the break, already a three-time All-Star at the age of 26).

2.  Billy Hunter, Browns SS, 1953 (.219/.253/.259, 37 OPS+, -2.1 WAR)
As a 25 year old rookie in '53, Hunter was hitting .245/.283/.281 (55 OPS+), with 9 doubles, 0 homers and 2 steals in 3 tries when he got the call as, for some reason, the team's fourth shortstop. He wasn't even the Browns' only All-Star; 46 year old Satchel Paige got the honor that year as well. Hunter got into the game as a pinch-runner for Mickey Mantle, and that's all, and when the season restarted he got even worse, "hitting" .189/.218/.234 (24 OPS+) the rest of the way. Hunter was a decent fielder, but one of the worst hitters the game has ever seen. He lasted in the league only six more years -- none of them as a full-time starter, thankfully -- and ended up with -4.7 career WAR.
Hunter resurfaced as manager of the Rangers in 1977 and '78. His Wikipedia page misspells the name Ripken and was very likely written by a big Hunter fan or family member.

1.  Alfredo Griffin, Blue Jays SS, 1984 (.241/.248/.298, 48 OPS+, -2.3 WAR)
Griffin isn't the worst player on this list (Hunter is), but he earns the top spot by managing to be named an All-Star in what was easily the worst season of his remarkably unremarkable career, managing to earn -2.3 WAR in just 449 PA. His first half was only moderately better, with a .241/.250/.317 line (60 OPS+). Total Zone thinks he also had his worst year in the field, with -10 runs. And, no, the .241/.248 above isn't a typo -- never a walk machine, Griffin hit rock-bottom in that area in '84, walking just four times (plus 1 HBP) in his 140 games. At least in '84, the Jays had the good sense to bat him ninth; in his 18-year, 7330 PA, .285 OBP, -2.4 WAR career, Griffin got over 3,000 PA in the leadoff and #2 spots in the batting order.
Yikes. It's also worth noting that his All-Star appearance and his 1979 (shared) Rookie of the Year Award make him arguably the most decorated sub-replacement player of all time.

So, yeah, Infante (whose 1.2 WAR this year and 7.5 career crush anybody on this list) was an almost unbelievably terrible choice. But it could always be, and has been, much worse...

[Note: I had a blast doing the podcast yesterday with TCM and Larry. Serious technical problems at the beginning, but it got better. Go here and just try to stick it out through the first 8-10 minutes.]

Well, that didn't go as planned.

I wasn't shy about sharing my optimism before this year started. That's unusual for me. I always try to be something a little worse than realistic, to keep my hopes in check, but this spring, I looked and looked and looked at it and just couldn't possibly envision a world in which the Twins would win fewer than 90 games. And I looked at the rest of the division, and I just couldn't see any of those teams finishing within fewer than four or five games of the Twins.

After starting out just perfectly, however -- they were 31-20 with a 4.5 game lead at the end of May -- things have gone quite abruptly south. They were just 12-15 in June, and started July 3-7. When the Twins take the field for the second "half" of the season today (for most teams it's actually about 55% over, but whatever), they'll do it as a third-place team with a 46-42 record, 3 1/2 games behind the White Sox, 3 behind the Tigers, and on pace for just 84 wins.

But you know what? I still believe. A 44-30 second "half" (.595) would get the Twins to exactly 90 wins, and would probably be enough to win the division. I think they'll do better than that. Here's why:

• They've still been the best team. The standings don't look good, but the Twins still have the best run differential in the division (+36 compared to Chicago's +30 and Detroit's +11). That wouldn't mean much if there had been huge real changes after the Twins' initial hot start, but there haven't been, among any of the teams. And the Twins' run scoring and prevention aren't helped by great luck with runners in scoring position (actually they've had pretty bad luck with RISP, though the Tigers have been even worse). The Sox are 17-9 in one-run games, while the Twins are 15-13; that alone makes up almost the entire difference between the two teams. Maybe it won't, of course, but I'd bet on the luck evening out.
• They're healthy (or healthier). The downturn happened at about the time that J.J. Hardy and Orlando Hudson both went down with injuries. Both are back now, and the team was back at full strength for a week or so...but was still terrible. Hardy and Hudson have OPS'ed .667 and .609, respectively, since their returns. Both, and especially Hudson, are better than that.
  Of course, the assumption that has to be made here is that Justin Morneau's concussion is a short-term issue, and that he will be back sometime soon.
  Also, once they really are back at full strength, the Cuddyer-at-3B experiment has to end, Punto needs to play third and Cuddyer, Delmon Young, Jason Kubel and Jim Thome need to share the corner outfield and DH spots, in keeping with the original plan. Sitting Punto, the team's best defensive player saps most of the value of having Hardy back.
• Joe Mauer is still Joe Mauer. He's actually hitting more line drives this year than last, and yet his batting average is down 72 points. He's hitting more fly balls, and yet his power is way, way down and he's already grounded into more double plays than he did in all of 2009. Mauer wasn't likely to hit .365 or 28 homers again no matter what, and I hope no one expected him to. But he's been the best player in the league for most of the last four years, and I don't see any reason to believe he won't be the same in the second half of 2010. I'd expect 10-12 homers and an OPS over .875 from today, July 15, through the end of the season.
• Francisco Liriano. Lirano has pitched like an ace all year, and currently sports a 2.19 FIP and 2.97 xFIP, but just a 3.84 ERA. This despite pitching in front of a team that, unlikely as it may seem, has sported one of the best defenses in baseball, and despite being a groundball pitcher pitching in front of an infield that probably is the best in baseball (when Cuddyer is in the outfield). I wouldn't be surprised if Liriano became something like the Ubaldo Jimenez of the second half -- crazy low ERA, lots of "wins."
• Brennan Boesch, Austin Jackson, and Paul Konerko. These three guys are driving the Twins' competitors, and all are playing way over their heads. As I've mentioned, nothing in Boesch's track record suggests he's capable of what he's currently doing. Moreover, what he's currently doing is being propped up by a crazy .384 BABIP; his minor league BABIP was about .310. Similarly, as I noted, Jackson's hot start was supported by a completely unsustainable .532 BABIP; since I wrote that on May 5, his BABIP has been a still-high .352, and yet he's hit just .255/.308/.352. I just don't think either of those guys are quality major league bats (though I think Jackson deserves his spot anyway due to excellent defense), and I suspect they'll be something a drag on the Tigers from this point forward. Konerko, of course, is toward the other end of his career arc, and hadn't hit 32 homers, slugged .500 or OBPed .355 in four years; he's currently hitting .299/.382/.560 and is, along with the similarly surprising Carlos Quentin and Alex Rios, carrying the White Sox offense. I think we'll see the Sox struggle mroe and more to score runs as Paulie's bat cools down (and maybe those other guys' do, too).
• Nick Blackburn will not make 15 starts in the second half. This is on faith. Blackburn, as David Goliebewski noted the other day, has stumbled off of that very thin line he was walking. He sports a 6.84 ERA after 16 starts, and has more or less earned it, with a 5.90 FIP and a 5.14 xFIP. Cliff Lee is off the board and Oswalt and Haren are probably too pricey, but any number of starters out there and likely to be available -- Ted Lilly, Fausto Carmona, Ben Sheets, maybe even Kevin Millwood -- have a decent chance to make for a 2-3 win improvement over Blackburn from here on out (unless Blackburn reverts back to his old ways, which in itself would be about a 2-win improvement). They've got to make a move. They just have to. Right?
• Strength of schedule. The Twins are done with the Yankees and Red Sox, and have already played 12 of their games against Detroit. There's one series left with the Rays, one with the Angels, two with the Rangers and three with the White Sox (who, for reasons above, I just can't look at as a good team), and everyone else is below .500. Lots and lots of CLEs, KCRs and SEAs on that schedule. The Sox and Tigers, meanwhile, have to face each other more than the Twins have to face either of them, The Tigers have the same series against the Rays and Rangers plus one each against the Yankees and Red Sox, while the White Sox have the Yankees and haven't faced the Red Sox even once yet (but have finished with the Rangers and Rays). The Tigers have a much tougher schedule, and the White Sox appear to me to have at least a slightly tougher schedule (and just aren't as strong a team).
• Justin Morneau isn't a first-half player. I believe this is a myth. Yeah, the differences in his career numbers are pretty stark (.939 first-half OPS, .791 second-half). But that comes from two years -- 2005, 2007 and 2009 -- at least two (and possibly all three) of which can be directly traced to injuries. In 2008, he dipped slightly in the second half, but not a ton (.903/.831), despite playing in all 162 games. In 2006, he OPSed .939 in the first half and .930 in the second. He'll drop off some this year (he's already started to), simply because there aren't many .350/.440/.620 players out there. But assuming a full and quick recovery from the head injury, I think the Twins can continue to expect one of the best hitters in the league, and the best 1B defense in the game. A decline from Miguel Cabrera is almost equally likely; I'll take Morneau's defense.

So I'm not worried. It would've been nice to see the Twins' first half (and especially the past month and a half) go a little more smoothly, but I see all kinds of reasons to look forward to the second half just as much as I was the first.